“Deja vu, all over again”

Por

José Carreño

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Publicado: 11/11/2024 · 11:40 a.m. MX | Actualizado: 11/11/2024 · 11:40 a.m. MX

WASHINGTON.- The virtual president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, threatens to impose excessive tariffs on Mexican products to force the Mexican government to take measures to reduce the arrival of migrants at the border with the United States.

The Mexican government did not formally accept it. It did not say so. But it took measures to that effect.

Well, that happened six years ago, and it is happening again now.

Sigue leyendo:

Senado aprueba entrada de militares de EEUU a México para 2025; esta es la razón

Fueron recientemente aprobados en el Senado dos dictámenes para que fuerzas especiales del ejército de Estados Unidos ingresen a México de enero a marzo de 2025 por los siguientes motivos.

Only this time, the US regime that will take office next January emerges from an incontestable victory in which it won not only the electoral vote but the popular vote and, therefore, a legitimacy lacking in Trump’s first government.

The impression in Washington is that Trump will use the threat of increasing tariffs, again and again, to pressure the country to stop the flow of migrants to the north, to try to lead the government to take more decisive and perhaps decisive action regarding drug trafficking and, of course, provisions that in his opinion disrupt trade and that includes the growing participation of China in production chains in Mexico.

These are issues on which Trump based a good part of his 2024 presidential campaign, on the idea that the United States is invaded by criminal undocumented immigrants who cross the border between the United States and Mexico, also vulnerable to drug cartels and in another sense, the place that the Chinese try to take advantage of to get around US prohibitions that affect their exports.

Trump is a master at using intimidation and strong positions to coerce his counterparts.

The Mexican government has some resources to deal with a multifaceted problem, but it will also depend on how far it wants or can go and its own internal conditions.

For analysts in Washington, ss-border trade will likely be completely shut down, given the impact this would have on the US manufacturing sector.

But at the same time, it is a situation that is seen as forcing the hand of the Mexican government, which suggests that tariffs will unlikely ever be put into practice. The regional economic reality, in general, forces an alignment, reluctantly or whatever.

The reality is that while it has possibilities of softening the blows, the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum comes to the game in less than optimal conditions: a weakened economy and dependent on its commercial relationship with the United States, with a series of economic commitments linked to social programs and subsidies to state companies.

It has the advantage and disadvantage of proximity and the relative importance of Mexico for the American power, both economically and socially, and geopolitically.

It is, as Yogi Berra, the famous catcher for the New York Yankees, said, “deja vu.” Yes, but a little more.

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS

CONTRIBUTOR

JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM

@CARRENOJOSE

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.

José Carreño