Mexico and the U.S.: Clouds on the Horizon

These would be three factors that are not present today in the Mexico-U.S. relationship, resulting from policies on both sides of the border.

Mexico and the U.S.: Clouds on the Horizon
CIUDAD DE MÉXICO, 04OCTUBRE2024.- Joseph Biden, presidente de los Estados Unidos, informó a través de redes sociales que realizó una llamada a Claudia Sheinbaum, presidenta de México, para felicitarla tras asumir como la primera presidenta de México. Además abordaron la cooperación bilateral en materia económica, cultural y comercial. FOTO: CORTESÍA/CUARTOSCURO.COM

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Trust, understanding, comprehension...

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These would be three factors that are currently lacking in the Mexico-U.S. relationship, resulting from policies on both sides of the border that, over the past six years, have combined to complicate a connection that is likely among the most extensive in the world.

But the reality is that both countries speak to themselves rather than to communicate with each other.

That could be the conclusion of the roundtable held on Tuesday with four former ambassadors: Mexicans Martha Bárcena and Arturo Sarukhan, who served in the U.S., and Americans Roberta Jacobson and Anthony Earl Wayne, who served in Mexico.

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The former diplomats expressed more skepticism than hope regarding the immediate future of a relationship that was largely built on trust through trade agreements and the so-called Mérida Initiative to combat drug trafficking.

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“Both parties (Democrats and Republicans) are tough on Mexico,” commented Bárcena.

In the current U.S. electoral campaign, both sides seem to be competing to adopt stronger positions regarding China and fentanyl, with Mexico caught in the middle in both cases. Additionally, there are the issues of migration and violence, which raise concerns about the border.

Meanwhile, the rapprochement process initiated with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been lost amid the recent government’s austerity programs. There are no representatives of Mexican security agencies in Washington, nor trade specialists, even as the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) looms on the horizon.

But here we see some of the inherent shortcomings of the Mexican government, which seems to be betting heavily on “nearshoring” in its trade relationship with the U.S., while the latter country is in a phase that more or less favors what is now called “reshoring,” meaning bringing back to the United States the industrial plants that had migrated to other countries, especially China.

“Mexico’s main competitor is not Vietnam... it’s Texas,” said Sarukhan.

However, attitudes on both sides of the border suggest that the review may have significant characteristics, driven by renewed American nationalism and the apparent indifference—or ignorance—of the Mexican government regarding the “red lines” set by the new competition amid China’s global rise and attempts to route part of its trade with the U.S. through Mexico.

But when the trade relationship surpasses $700 billion annually, Mexico remains the U.S.‘s largest trading partner, despite the fact that the Mexican embassy in Washington has returned to levels seen in the 1970s or 80s, before NAFTA.

https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/opinion/2024/10/10/mexico-eu-nubes-en-el-horizonte-644588.html.

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