A LOT OF MONEY: Trump sees Mexico as a big problem

I had several meetings with people close to Donald Trump, the incoming president of the United States, and various members of his future cabinet. They painted a very complicated picture of what they currently see in Mexico and told me that Marcelo Ebrard is the only trustworthy person in the entire Mexican government.

This week, Trump’s incoming administration is debating one central issue: what to do about “The Mexico Problem.” In other words, the president-elect’s close team is discussing the scale of the problem Mexico represents for them. It needs to be classified into one of two categories: Is it a migration or national security issue?

If the new U.S. government categorizes Mexico under the first classification, there may be a pathway to solving the bilateral relationship. However, the relationship will ultimately implode if they label us a national security problem.

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What I heard in the conversation was highly concerning. In Trump’s circle, there is a strong belief that the Mexican government does not have complete control over its national territory. Criminal groups have taken a significant portion of that control. This is why they are considering categorizing Mexico as a fundamental problem. That step, however, will not happen immediately. My interlocutors believe there will be three phases in the new bilateral relationship.

In the first phase, there will be an effective border closure to control illegal immigration, starting from day one of Trump’s administration. This phase will inevitably include mass deportations within the first 100 days of his government. In the second phase, if migration is controlled, the USMCA (T-MEC) will be reviewed, focusing on security guarantees. This phase will last a year until 2026. If the first two fail in the third phase, Mexico could be officially categorized as a national security problem. If that happens, the USMCA will not be renewed, and we will face a total separation unlike anything experienced by our generation or our parents’.

There are those in Trump’s circle advocating for reversing this sequence—labeling Mexico a national security threat first to immediately begin addressing the problem with harsher measures.

My sources have revealed that in Trump’s high-level circle, the responses from the Mexican government so far are seen as very clumsy.

SUPREME COURT

One of the strongest candidates vying for the Minister of Mexico’s Supreme Court position is Ramón Neme Sastré, former Vice President of the pharmaceutical company Genomma Lab. He has extensive experience in intellectual property issues and academic training at Harvard University. His connections with Mexico’s last two administrations also bolster the legal and institutional expertise he brings.

By Carlos Mota

@SoyCarlosMota