USA: an unprecedented challenge
Whatever the outcome, American democracy is about to face an unprecedented challenge
Washington, D.C.- I am writing this column around noon on Monday. The electoral atmosphere in the American capital, a bastion of the Democratic Party, can be described with three brushstrokes. On the one hand, there are the self-proclaimed “harmful optimists” who assure that Kamala Harris is closing with the latest trends in her favor; on the other, those I would call the “traumatized of 2016,” who see a scenario like that year coming, in which Trump loses the popular vote (VP) but wins in the Electoral College (EC); And finally, there are those who insist that “it’s a toss-up” and are resigned to the uncertainty because of how close the polls look in the states where the race is more even (within the margin of error, of course).
Publicidad
I would like to be one of the first, but I was already in 2016 (with Hillary Clinton); so now in 2024 I am rather halfway between the second and third (perhaps a little more third, in fact). And this could become one of those elections that are defined by a really tiny distance in the EC. The crucial state is Pennsylvania, whose 19 seats can make all the difference. If of the 7 states that look the most disputed, Trump were to take Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, he would accumulate 262 seats in the EC; if Harris were to win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, he would have 257. If he wins Pennsylvania, the result would be 281 to 257 (a margin of 24); If she did it, it would be 276 to 262 (a margin of 14).
The only election that has been decided by a smaller margin since 1964 (when the EC acquired its current composition of 538 seats) was the year 2000, when George W. Bush won against Al Gore by a difference of just 5 seats.
That the polls are so close and that the difference, in the end, could be so small, could well imply that on Tuesday night the projections are “too close to call” or that legal appeals are filed to request recounts, so that there is no way to “say” clearly who won. It is not a desirable scenario, of course, but given the circumstances it seems probable. The political-legal battle that would be unleashed as a result would be fierce.
Publicidad
Just as it happened in 2000, by the way, with the recount that was fought in Florida. Back then, just over a month passed between Election Day and the Supreme Court ruling that put an end to the dispute. The decision was highly controversial, but Al Gore immediately complied with it.
Publicidad
It is hard to imagine something similar happening this year, especially if the decision does not benefit Donald Trump. It is also hard to imagine that a court as largely conservative as the one in the United States today would rule against him (although the conservatism that controls the Court is not necessarily under Trump’s orders). Whatever the outcome, American democracy is about to face an unprecedented challenge: a second Trump presidency or a second time where he does not admit defeat.
BY CARLOS BRAVO REGIDOR
CONTRIBUTOR
@CARLOSBRAVOREG
Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.
Publicidad
Últimas Noticias
Publicidad
Más Leídas | Heraldo USA
Alto funcionario del Kremlin advierte que Trump podría ser asesinado como JFK si gana la elección
Por Heraldo USA
Líderes de todo el mundo felicitan a Donald Trump tras convertirse en el nuevo presidente de EEUU
Por Heraldo USA
Sigue EN VIVO las noticias más recientes HOY 6 de noviembre día de las Elecciones en EEUU 2024
Por Heraldo USA
Kamala Harris vive vergonzoso momento al fingir realizar llamada a votantes
Por Heraldo USA
Publicidad
Más noticias de Elections usa
Más noticias de Estados unidos
Últimas Noticias
Mhoni Vidente revela que herencia de Silvia Pinal causará un gran PLEITO entre la familia
Por Diana Rivero
Estos son los 3 doramas más vistos en Netflix en 2024 que te harán creer en el amor otra vez
Por Jonathan Almazán
Los 4 signos zodiacales destinados a triunfar y terminar el 2024 rodeados de dinero
Por Agencias
Piloto pierde el control y estrella avioneta contra tres vehículos en Texas
Por Jonathan Almazán
Kate Cassidy comparte imágenes y VIDEOS nunca antes vistos de Liam Payne a 2 meses de su muerte
Por Jonathan Almazán
Gastrolab MX
Jugo de chayote con piña, receta y beneficios
Por Gastrolab México
Como agua para chocolate: Receta original de Tita del pastel "Chabela" de la boda
Por Gastrolab México
Buen Fin 2024: Lista de restaurantes y negocios de comida con descuentos especiales
Por Gastrolab México
Jugo de nopal con apio para reducir el colesterol y proteger tu flora intestinal
Por Gastrolab México
Recetas fáciles y económicas para preparar: Cocina unos ejotes con pollo para la hora de la comida
Por Gastrolab México
Heraldo MX
¿Buscas chamba? Bimbo abre vacantes desde casa con sueldos de hasta 38 mil pesos mensuales para CDMX
Fue la conductora más hermosa de TV Azteca, abandonó el país por amor y así luce tras 6 años lejos de las pantallas
Por El Heraldo de México
Esta es la moneda conmemorativa de 5 pesos que ahora vale más de 400 mil pesos, en Mercado Libre
Por El Heraldo de México
Bimbo abre vacantes con sueldos de hasta 34 mil pesos mensuales; ofrece trabajo desde casa y descuentos en sus productos
Por El Heraldo de México
Leyenda de la Liga Mexicana de Beisbol solicita ayuda económica por problemas de salud
Por El Heraldo de México
Bimbo abre vacantes desde casa para CDMX, ofrece descuentos en productos, INFONAVIT y vales de despensa
Por El Heraldo de México